Is the Northern Political Exploitation of the Yoruba People a Temporary Arrangement or a Lasting Alliance?

 Is the Northern Political Exploitation of the Yoruba People a Temporary Arrangement or a Lasting Alliance? In the ever-turning wheel of Nig...

 Is the Northern Political Exploitation of the Yoruba People a Temporary Arrangement or a Lasting Alliance?

In the ever-turning wheel of Nigerian politics, alliances shift like desert winds. But one alignment continues to provoke intense debate and suspicion: the North's political use of the Yoruba bloc. Is this alliance a genuine bond of national unity, or a calculated marriage of convenience that serves Northern dominance at the expense of Southern self-determination?

To answer this, we must examine both history and the present, dissecting the facts, figures, and strategic betrayals that have defined the relationship between Nigeria's core North and the South-West.

The seeds of this alliance were sown in the 1950s when Northern political leaders, especially Sir Ahmadu Bello and Sir Tafawa Balewa of the Northern People's Congress (NPC), aligned with Chief Obafemi Awolowo's Action Group (AG) to form regional pacts to wrest power from the colonial authorities. However, this alliance soon frayed.

By 1962, the AG had been weakened by internal crises and federal pressure, culminating in the imprisonment of Awolowo under a suspicious treason charge - an action widely seen as endorsed, if not orchestrated by the North-dominated federal power.

Despite this, the alliance re-emerged in different forms over the decades, most notably during the military era, where power consistently shifted between Northern military officers, while prominent Yoruba figures were either co-opted or silenced.

Perhaps no episode illustrates Northern political use of the Yoruba better than the 1993 presidential election. Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola, a Yoruba businessman and politician overwhelmingly won what was widely considered Nigeria’s freest and fairest election. Yet, the same military power structure dominated by Northern generals annulled the election and jailed Abiola until his death in 1998. This event triggered massive unrest in the South-West and exposed the fragility of the North-Yoruba alliance. It proved that the North was willing to partner with the Yoruba when it served their political interests but would discard that alliance when power consolidation was threatened.

Fast forward to 2013–2015: The birth of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was hailed as a merger of progressives across North and South. The core of this coalition was between Muhammadu Buhari’s Northern political machine (CPC) and Bola Tinubu’s South-West political empire (ACN). The Yorubas were promised “change” and political relevance.

But eight years under Buhari’s rule told a different story in several ways:

* Appointments: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), over 70% of key federal appointments during Buhari’s tenure went to Northern Muslims. Yoruba leaders, despite their role in APC’s rise, found themselves sidelined.

* Security: South-West governors were forced to create Amotekun (regional security outfit) due to the federal government’s inaction on banditry and herder-related violence issues seen as linked to Northern political interests.

* Economic Marginalization: The South-West, a hub of innovation and entrepreneurship saw little infrastructural or industrial investment compared to the North under Buhari.

Yet, despite this record of imbalance, the alliance was revived again in 2023—this time with Bola Tinubu himself at the center.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu's ascent to the presidency was, on the surface, a Yoruba victory. But critics argue that his win was enabled largely by Northern political calculation. The immediate post-election alignment showed the North retained firm control over critical federal levers: defense, intelligence, judiciary, and internal security.

Northern elites, notably from the Arewa Consultative Forum and Northern Elders Forum, have continued to assert influence on Tinubu's policies, with calls to reverse subsidy removal and curb economic policies that affect the North disproportionately. There are clamours from the North for Tinubu’s presidency to just be a four-year window before power returns to the North. This is clear explanation that the North only aligns with Yoruba for their selfish reasons. 

If that happens, it would only affirm a growing belief that the North uses the Yoruba when power is threatened, and discards them once dominance is secured.

Many Yoruba intellectuals and political observers have asked: Why do our leaders keep aligning with the North when history shows it rarely ends well?

The answer may lie in:

* Political Elitism:- Where Yoruba political elites, particularly those benefitting from Northern patronage, prioritize access to federal power over ethnic interests.

* Internal Division:- The South-West lacks a unified political voice like the North's bloc voting behavior, making them vulnerable to external manipulation.

. Economic Leverage:- The federal structure concentrates economic control at the center—whoever controls Abuja controls access to oil revenue, security, and patronage networks.

Judging from Nigeria's post-independence history, this alliance is best described as a transactional partnership masquerading as national unity. It is neither permanent nor rooted in mutual respect, but rather forged in election season and quickly discarded once victory is secured.

In the North-Yoruba political dynamic, history repeats because it is allowed to. Until Yoruba leaders prioritize genuine autonomy and regional development over fleeting federal favors, they will continue to be pawns in the North's political chessboard.

The challenge is clear: will the Yoruba rise to redefine the terms of engagement or will history repeat once more?

Family Writers Press International